Project 3Comprehensive climate policy assessment and development of visions and scenarios towards a low-carbon society
Results of FY 2014
In sub-theme 1 we analyze numerical information, specifically the socio-economic trends and technologies for countermeasures which are necessary for achieving a low-carbon society (LSC) as well as the concrete actions reflecting these factors, applying the back casting methodology for Asian countries such as Japan, China and India. This information is used as basic scientific data for supporting international negotiations about climate change countermeasures. Furthermore, by compiling LCS scenarios for the leading countries in Asia, we support policy makers in making scientific decisions. In FY 2013, in cooperation with researchers at NIES and other organizations we quantified the results of the report “Ten Actions toward Low-Carbon Asia”, which summarizes the actions and countermeasures that will be necessary in Asia to reduce global GHG emissions by 2050 by 50% below the 1990 level.
Through the improvement of the models that we had developed, we estimate in sub-theme 2 the costs of countermeasures for GHG emission reduction reflecting regional and sectoral characteristics, and examine GHG emission reduction plans. Using global models, we also develop various scenarios as part of an international project, considering not only mitigation policies but also global warming impacts and adaptation policies. Furthermore, based on the results of the other sub-themes we perform integrated analyses using Japan-specific and global models, and assess the different levels and economic impacts of Japan’s countermeasures with regard to international reduction targets.
Concerning the results of sub-theme 3, we have presented those factors that were found to hinder the coming international negotiations, and suggested a structure for an international system that should be aimed at in the mid- and long run. Since international negotiations have been conducted in recent years for a new international framework that can be agreed upon at COP21 to be held in Paris at the end of 2015, we now carry out research on such framework options.
