Climate Change Research Program

Project 3Comprehensive climate policy assessment and development of visions and scenarios towards a low-carbon society

Results of FY 2011

In sub-theme 1, we analyze numerical information, specifically the socio-economic trends and technologies for countermeasures which are necessary for achieving a low-carbon society (LCS) as well as the concrete actions reflecting these factors, applying the back casting methodology for Asian countries such as Japan, China and India. This information is used as basic scientific data for supporting international negotiations about climate change countermeasures. Furthermore, by compiling LCS scenarios for the leading countries in Asia, we support policy makers in making scientific decisions.

Through the improvement of the models that we had developed, we estimate in sub-theme 2 the costs of countermeasures for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction reflecting regional and sectoral characteristics, and examine GHG emission reduction plans.

Using global models we also develop various scenarios considering not only mitigation policies but also global warming impacts and adaptation policies. Furthermore, based on the results of the other sub-themes and through analyses integrating Japan-specific and global models, we plan to investigate Japan’s countermeasures with regard to international reduction targets.

Concerning the results of sub-theme 3, we announced those factors that were found to hinder the coming international negotiations, and the structure of an international system that should be aimed at in the mid- and long run. By further examining the concrete characteristics of those international agreements which are acceptable for the major countries, we expect to contribute to the settlement of a negotiation strategy by the Japanese Government and to a qualitative assessment of the national climate change policy.

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