Project 3Comprehensive climate policy assessment and development of visions and scenarios towards a low-carbon society
Results of FY 2012
In sub-theme 1, we analyze numerical information, specifically the socio-economic trends and technologies for countermeasures which are necessary for achieving a low-carbon society (LCS) as well as the concrete actions reflecting these factors, applying the back casting methodology for Asian countries such as Japan, China and India. This information is used as basic scientific data for supporting international negotiations about climate change countermeasures. Furthermore, by compiling LCS scenarios for the leading countries in Asia, we support policy makers in making scientific decisions. In FY 2012 we prepared and published, in cooperation with researchers at NIES and other organizations, the report “Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia” which summarizes the actions and countermeasures that will be necessary in Asia to reduce global GHG emissions by 2050 by 50% below the 1990 level.
Through the improvement of the models that we had developed, we estimate in sub-theme 2 the costs of countermeasures for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction reflecting regional and sectoral characteristics, and examine GHG emission reduction plans. Using global models we also develop various scenarios considering not only mitigation policies but also global warming impacts and adaptation policies.
Furthermore, based on the results of the other sub-themes we perform integrated analyses using Japan-specific and global models, and we investigate the different levels and economic impacts of Japan’s countermeasures with regard to international reduction targets. Finally, we analyze the prospects of new global warming countermeasures in response to the change of the rate of nuclear power generation after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.
Concerning the results of sub-theme 3, we announced those factors that were found to hinder the coming international negotiations, and the structure of an international system that should be aimed at in the mid- and long run. By further examining the concrete characteristics of those international agreements which are acceptable for the major countries, we expect to contribute to the settlement of a negotiation strategy by the Japanese Government and to a qualitative assessment of the national climate change policy.
