Project 2Climate change and global risk assessment
As a countermeasure towards global warming, the proposal to suppress global mean temperature rise under 2 degrees Celsius has been debated in international negotiations. However, no international consensus in this regard has been reached, and the targets of the international community and their bases are not yet clear. In the present project, the discussion about such targets and the methods to achieve them is regarded as an issue of social decision making about climate risk management. To facilitate the decision making process, we aim at analyzing global risk management strategies by studying global warming risks and other related global risks as well as risk management options.
Based on the results of model research on projections of climate change and its impacts, made by NIES and other research institutes, we interpret the future projections by clarifying the mechanisms of phenomena and assessing estimation uncertainty, and conduct research which will provide appropriate risk information (sub-theme 1).
We also undertake global model research with an emphasis on various terrestrial elements interacting with climate, including human activities, and perform integrated analyses of climate change impacts on these elements as well as those factors that constrain global warming countermeasures (sub-theme 2). Furthermore, in addition to collating the available knowledge on climate change impacts and the cost-effectiveness of countermeasures such as adaptation and geo-engineering (sub-theme 3), we also carry out research on global risk management policy.
Results and future plans
Related research
- Integrated Climate Assessment—Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS)
- Integrated Research on Climate Change Scenarios to Increase Public　Awareness and Contribute to the Policy Process (Only available in Japanese)
- Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts
- Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century (External link)