発表論文

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

著者
Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hijioka Y., Hasegawa T., Honda Y., Masui T.
雑誌名
Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 064010
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/aa72cc
概要

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0°C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0°C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5°C goal and the 2.0°C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

For more details on this paper, please see http://www.nies.go.jp/social/en/abstracts22.html.

気候変動によって、労働者はより多くの暑熱ストレスに曝されることが予想されます。熱中症のリスクを低減するために、作業中に休憩を取ることが推奨されています。しかし、休憩を取ることで作業可能な時間が減り、労働生産性が低下します。本研究では、熱中症予防のために休憩を取ることによる経済的なコストを、幅広い将来シナリオの下で推計し比較しました。WBGT(暑さ指数)と呼ばれる暑熱ストレスの指標と、推奨される休憩時間の値をもとに将来の労働時間の減少を予測し、経済モデルを用いてGDP損失を推計しました。温室効果ガスの排出増加が続くというシナリオの下では、経済的コストは2100年の時点で、世界全体のGDPの2.6〜4.0%と推計されました。一方で、パリ協定で掲げられている2°C目標を達成できた場合には、0.5%以下に収まると推計されました。この差は2°C目標を達成することの便益に相当しますが、2°C目標を達成するために必要とされている費用とも比較可能な値です。2°C目標の達成や、社会経済状態の改善によるエアコンの普及などは、特に開発途上国での損失を減少させる効果がありますが、屋外の労働は影響を受けることが予想されます。気候変動の緩和策に加えて、労働時間帯を涼しい時間帯にずらすといった気候変動に対する適応策も今後重要になってくると考えられます。

詳細は、http://www.nies.go.jp/social/abstracts22.htmlを参照して下さい。