Uncertainty of concentration–terrestrial carbon feedback in the Earth System Models

著者: Hajima T., Ito A., Tachiiri K., Kawamiya M.
雑誌名: Journal of Climate, 27:3425–3445
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00177.1
概要: Carbon uptake by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration is called concentration–carbon feedback and is one of the carbon cycle feedbacks of the global climate. This feedback can have a major impact on climate projections with an uncertain magnitude. This paper focuses on the concentration–carbon feedback in terrestrial ecosystems, analyzing the mechanisms and strength of the feedback reproduced by Earth system models (ESMs) participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. It is confirmed that multiple ESMs driven by a common scenario show a large spread of concentration–carbon feedback strength among models. Examining the behavior of the carbon fluxes and pools of the models showed that the sensitivity of plant productivity to elevated CO₂ is likely the key to reduce the spread, although increasing CO₂ stimulates other carbon cycle processes. Simulations with a single ESM driven by different CO₂ pathways demonstrated that carbon accumulation increases in scenarios with slower CO₂ increase rates. Using both numerical and analytical approaches, the study showed that the difference among CO₂ scenarios is a time lag of terrestrial carbon pools in response to atmospheric CO₂ increase—a high rate of CO₂ increase results in smaller carbon accumulations than that in an equilibrium state of a given CO₂ concentration. These results demonstrate that the current quantities for concentration–carbon feedback are incapable of capturing the feedback dependency on the carbon storage state and suggest that the concentration feedback can be larger for future scenarios where the CO₂ growth rate is reduced.