気候変動リスク評価研究室

気候変動が進むことによる悪影響のリスクや、気候変動対策に伴う副作用のリスクを、主に地球全体の空間規模に注目して評価する研究をしています。主にコンピュータシミュレーションの手法を用いて研究を行います。得られた成果を政策立案の指針に役立てることを目指しています。

研究スタッフ

研究プロジェクト

研究成果

発表論文

Mapping simulated circum-Arctic organic carbon, ground ice, and vulnerability of ice-rich permafrost to degradation
Saito, K., Machiya, H., Iwahana, G., Ohno, H., & Yokohata, T.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7, 31 (2020)
On the potential of “Photovoltaics + Electric vehicles” for deep decarbonization of Kyoto’s power systems: Techno-economic-social considerations
Kobashi, T., Yoshida, T., Yamagata, Y., Naito, K., Pfenninger, S., Say, K., Takeda, Y., Ahl, A., Yarime, M. & Hara, K.
Applied Energy 275, 115419 (2020)
Scalability of future climate changes across Japan examined with large-ensemble simulations at + 1.5 K, + 2 K, and + 4 K global warming levels
Nosaka, M., Ishii, M., Shiogama, H., Mizuta, R., Murata, A., Kawase, H. & Sasaki, H.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7: 27 (2020)
Selecting future climate projections of surface solar radiation in Japan
Shiogama, H., Ito, R., Imada, Y., Nakaegawa, T., Hirota, N., Ishizaki, N. N., Takahashi, K., Takayabu I. & Emori, S.
SOLA 16, 75–79 (2020)
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
Shiogama, H., Hirata, R., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ishizaki, N., Chatani, S., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D. & Lo Y. T. E.
Earth System Dynamics 11, 435–445 (2020)
Evaluation of two bias-correction methods for gridded climate scenarios over Japan
Ishizaki, N. N., Nishimori, M., Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N. & Takahashi, K.
SOLA 16, 80–85 (2020)
Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5
Ito, R., Shiogama, H., Nakaegawa, T. & Takayabu, I.
Geoscientific Model Development 13, 859–872 (2020)
Techno-economic assessment of photovoltaics plus electric vehicles towards household-sector decarbonization in Kyoto and Shenzhen by the year 2030
Kobashi, T., Say, K., Wang, J., Yarime, M., Wang, D., Yoshida, T. & Yamagata, Y.
Journal of Cleaner Production 253, 119933 (2020)
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Shiogama, H., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Murakami, D., Takahashi, K., Tanaka, K., Emori, S., Kubota, I., Abe, M., Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D., Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Fischer, E., Scinocca, J. F., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L., Takakura, J., Trautmann, T., Döll, P., Ostberg, S., Schmied, H. M., Saeed, F. & Schleussner, C.-F.
Environmental Research Letters 14, 124022 (2019)
Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways
Takakura, J., Fujimori, S., Hanasaki, N., Hasegawa, T., Hirabayashi, Y., Honda, Y., Iizumi, T., Kumano, N., Park, C., Shen, Z., Takahashi, K., Tamura, M., Tanoue, M., Tsuchida, K., Yokoki, H., Zhou, Q., Oki, T. & Hijioka, Y.
Nature Climate Change 9, 737–741 (2019)
The July 2018 high temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming
Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Kawase, H., Shiogama, H. & Arai, M.
Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) (2019)
Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project
Stone, D. A., Christidis, N., Folland, C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Perlwitz, J., Shiogama, H., Wehner, M. F., Wolski, P., Cholia, S., Krishnan, H., Murray, D., Angélil, O., Beyerle, U., Ciavarella, A., Dittus, A., Quan, X.-W. & Tadross, M.
Weather and Climate Extremes 24, 100206 (2019)
Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations
Duan, W., Hanasaki, N., Shiogama, H., Chen, Y., Zou, S., Nover, D., Zhou, B. & Wang, Y.
Journal of Climate 32, 2169–2183 (2019)
Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing efects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., Mbengue, C., Allen, M. R., O’Reilly, C. H., Shiogama, H. & Sparrow, S.
Climate Dynamics (2019)
Asserting the climate benefits of the coal-to-gas shift across temporal and spatial scales
Tanaka, K., Cavalett, O., Collins, W. J. & Cherubini, F.
Nature Climate Change 9, 389–396 (2019)
Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
Wu, W., Hasegawa, T., Ohashi, H., Hanasaki, N., Liu, J., Matsui, T., Fujimori, S., Masui, T. & Takahashi, K.
GCB Bioenergy (2019)
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., François, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Büchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., De Wit, A., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C., Schmied, H. M., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X. & Warszawski, L.
Nature Communications 10, 1005 (2019)
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5°C to a 2°C warmer world
Madakumbura, G. D., Kim, H., Utsumi, N., Shiogama, H., Fischer, E. M., Seland, Ø., Scinocca, J. F., Mitchell, D. M., Hirabayashi, Y. & Oki, T.
Scientific Reports 9: 3483 (2019)
The Effects of Natural Variability and Climate Change on the Record Low Sunshine over Japan During August 2017
Takahashi, C., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Kosaka, Y., Mori, M., Arai, M., Kamae, Y. & Watanabe, M.
in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2018)
Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels
Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H. & Nishimori, M.
International Journal of Climatology (2018)
Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a—Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Wartenburger, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Hirschi, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Gosling, S. N., Gudmundsson, L., Henrot, A., Hickler, H., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Morfopoulos, C., Müller, C., Schmied, H. M., Nishina, K., Orth, R., Pokhrel, Y. N., Pugh, T., Satoh, Y., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Sheffield, J., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Tang, O., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Wang, X., Weedon, G. P., Yang, H. & Zhou, T.
Environmental Research Letters 13, 075001 (2018)
Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars
Tanaka, K., Lund, M. T., Aamaas, B. & Berntsen, T.
Environmental Research Letters 13, 044020 (2018)
The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets
Tanaka, K. & O’Neill, B. C.
Nature Climate Change 8, 319–324 (2018)
Risk implications of long-term global climate goals: overall conclusions of the ICA-RUS project
Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Yamagata, Y., Kanae, S., Mori, S. & Fujigaki, Y.
Sustainability Science 13, 279–289 (2018)
Integrated climate assessment: risks, uncertainties, and society (ICA-RUS)
Emori, S. & Takahashi, K.
Sustainability Science 13, 275–277 (2018)
Decadal shifts in wind patterns reduced continental outflow and suppressed ozone trend in the 2010s in the lower troposphere over Japan
Okamoto, S., Tanimoto, H., Hirota, N., Ikeda, K. & Akimoto, H.
J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 123 (2018)
Global freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impactunder 1.5 and 2°C stabilization scenarios
Liu, W, Lim, W. H., Sun, F., Mitchell, D., Wang, H., Chen, D., Bethke, I., Shiogama, H. & Fischer, E.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 45 (2018)
Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity
Watanabe, M., Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., DeAngelis, A. M. & Suzuki, K.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Multi-model event attribution of the summer 2013 heat wave in Korea
Kim, Y.-H., Min, S.-K., Stone, D. A., Shiogama, H. & Wolski, P.
Weather and Climate Extremes 20, 33–4 (2018)
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
Lee, D., Min, S-K., Fischer, E., Shiogama, H., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L. & Scinocca, J. F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 044033 (2018)
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C and 2°C
Saeed, F., Bethke, I., Fischer, E., Legutke, S., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. & Schleussner, C.-F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064024 (2018)
Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K. L., Fischer, E., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L., Kharin, V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. & Vardoulakis, S.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5°C world
Baker, H., Millar, R., Karoly, D., Beyerle, U., Guillod, B., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Woollings, T. & Allen, M.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 2016
Hirota, N., Shiogama, H., Akiyoshi, H., Ogura, T., Takahashi, M., Kawatani, Y., Kimoto, M. & Mori, M.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1:10 (2018)
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming and implications for regional impacts
Li, C., Michel, C., Graff, L. S., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B. J., Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A. & Wettstein, J. J.
Earth System Dynamics 9, 359–382 (2018)
Roles of shallow convective moistening in the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hirota, N., Ogura, T., Tatebe, H., Shiogama, H., Kimoto, M. & Watanabe, M.
J. Climate 31, 3033–3047 (2018)
Roles of intraseasonal disturbances and diabatic heating in the East Asian jet stream variabilities associated with the East Asian winter monsoon
Hirota, N., Ohta, M., Yamashita, Y. & Takahashi, M.
J. Climate 31, 2871–2887 (2018)
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Wehner, M., Stone, D., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Fischer, E., Graff, L. S., Kharin, V. V., Lierhammer, L., Sanderson, B. & Krishnan, H.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 299–311 (2018)
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds
Liu, W., Sun, F., Lim, W. H., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Shiogama, H. & Zhang, Y.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 267–283 (2018)
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land
Hirsch, A. L., Guillod, B. P., Seneviratne, S. I., Beyerle, U., Boysen, L. R., Brovkin, V., Davin, E. L., Doelman, J. C., Kim, H., Mitchell, D. M., Nitta, T., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P. & Wilson, S.
Earth’s Future 6 (2018)
Reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up CO2 fluxes in Siberia larch forest
Takata, K., Patra, P. K., Kotani, A., Mori, J., Belikov, D., Ichii, K., Saeki, T., Ohta, T., Saito, K., Ueyama, M., Ito, A., Maksyutov, S., Miyazaki, S., Burke, E. J., Ganshin, A., Iijima, Y., Ise, T., Machiya, H., Maximov, T. C., Niwa, Y., O’ishi, R., Park, H., Sasai, T., Sato, H., Tei, S., Zhuravlev, R., Machida, T., Sugimoto, A. & Aoki, S.
Environmental Research Letters 12, 125012 (2017)
Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM
Abe, M., Takata, K.., Kawamiya, M. & Watanabe, S.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122, 9245–9261 (2017)
Conceptualizing dimensions and characteristics of urban resilience: Insights from a co-design process
Sharifi, A., Chelleri, L., Fox-Lent, C., Grafakos, S., Pathak, M., Olazabal, M., Moloney, S., Yumagulova, L. & Yamagata, Y.
Sustainability 9, 1032 (2017)
Reconstruction of spatially detailed global map of NH4+ and NO3 application in synthetic nitrogen fertilizer
Nishina, K., Ito, A., Hanasaki, N. & Hayashi, S.
Earth System Science Data 9, 149–162 (2017)
On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources
Tanaka, A., Takahashi, K., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Masaki, Y., Ito, A., Noda, H., Hijioka, Y. & Emori, S.
Climatic Change 141, 775–782 (2017)
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk
Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Kim, Y.-H., Kim, B.-M., Shiogama, H. & Heo, J.
J. Climate 30, 4693–4703 (2017)
Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Ma, S., Zhou, T., Stone, D. A., Angélil, O. & Shiogama, H.
Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 054020 (2017)
Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments
Fujimori, S., Abe, M., Kinoshita, T., Hasegawa, T., Kawase, H., Kushida, K., Masui, T., Oka, K., Shiogama, H., Takahashi, K., Tatebe, H. & Yoshikawa, M.
PLOS ONE 12 (1), e0169733–e0169733 (2017)
Global dimming and urbanization: Did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?
Imamovic, A., Tanaka, K., Folini, D. & Wild, M.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, 2719–2725 (2016)
Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science: Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA
Levasseur, A., Cavalett, O., Fuglestvedt, J., Gasser, T., Johansson, D., Jørgensen, S., Raugei, M., Reisinger, A., Shivley, G., Strømman, A., Tanaka, K. & Cherubini, F.
Ecological Indicators 71, 163–174 (2016)
Amending the inadequacy of a single indicator for climate impact analyses
Cherubini, F. & Tanaka, K.
Environmental Science & Technology 50, 12530–12531 (2016)
Bridging the gap between impact assessment methods and climate science
Cherubini, F., Fuglestvedt, J., Gasser, T., Reisinger, A., Cavalett, O., Johansson, D. J. A., Jørgensen, S. V., Huijbregts, M., Raugei, M., Shivley, G., Strømman, A. H., Tanaka, K. & Levasseur, A.
Environmental Science & Policy 64, 129–140 (2016)
Urban infrastructure choices structure climate solutions
Creutzig, F., Agoston, P., Minx, J. C., Canadell, J. G., Andrew, R. M., Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Sharifi, A., Yamagata, Y. & Dhakal, S.
Nature Climate Change 6, 1054–1056 (2016)
Research priorities for negative emissions
Fuss, S., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Peters, G. P., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Milne, J., Moreira, J. R., Nakicenovic, N., Sharifi, A. & Yamagata, Y.
Environmental Research Letters 11, 115007 (2016)
Is global dimming and brightening in Japan limited to urban areas?
Tanaka, K., Ohmura, A., Folini, D., Wild, M. & Ohkawara, N.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, 13969–14001 (2016)
Lower-tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble
Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Ogura, T., Yokohata, T. & Kimoto, M.
Journal of Climate 29, 6259–6275 (2016)
Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review
Sharifi, A. & Yamagata, Y.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 60, 1654–1677 (2016)
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D. & Tebaldi, C.
Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016)
Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events
Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Mori, M., Mizuta, R., Stone, D., Yoshida, K., Arakawa, O., Ikeda, M., Takahashi, C., Arai, M., Ishii, M., Watanabe, M. & Kimoto, M.
SOLA 12, 225–231 (2016)
Realizing the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world
Mitchell, D., James, R., Forster, P. M., Betts, R. A., Shiogama, H. & Allen, M. R.
Nature Climate Change (2016)
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Shiogama, H., Stone, D., Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Mori, S., Maeda, A., Ishizaki, Y. & Allen, M. R.
Scientific Reports 6:18903 (2016)