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Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE): a new approach exploring the uncertainties of climate sensitivity

Authors

Shiogama H., Watanabe M., Ogura T., Yokohata T., Kimoto M.

Journal

Atmos. Sci. Let.

DOI

10.1002/asl2.472

Abstract

To explore both the parametric and structural uncertainties of climate sensitivity (CS), we have proposed a new general circulation model (GCM) ensemble termed the multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE). We used eight multi-physics ensemble (MPE) models in which the MIROC5 physics schemes were replaced by those of MIROC3. MPMPE consisted of perturbed-physics ensembles in which the parameter values were swept for each MPE model. MPMPE resulted in a wide range of CS, which was related to the shortwave cloud feedback (SWcld). Coupling between low- and mid-level clouds controlled the differences in the parametric spread of SWcld among the MPE models.